Skip to content
Badr Alghamdi
ToolsLearnReferenceGlossaryField LibraryMethod sheetsWritingAbout
العربية
←Tools

Common cause dependency: three qualified sources, and one week leaves one

Name your sources, name the dependency that stands behind more than one of them, then type each source's closure weeks as you have them. The page counts the weeks in which every source behind that dependency is closed at once, and reads the whole number of independent branches there. In ordinary weeks the count is three. In the one week they share it is one. The page measures no readiness and returns no percentage: it counts weeks you typed.

Live result

In 1 week of the year the count falls to 1 independent branches.
  • branches in an ordinary week3
One shared closure week is enough to make the yearly count untrue for that week.
In 1 week of the year the count falls to 1 independent branches.One shared closure week is enough to make the yearly count untrue for that week.

The year strip and roster

52 weeks
Live chart
The whole branch count over the closure weeks you typed3 source rows across 52 weeks. The upper strip holds 3 branches in ordinary weeks and 1 in the 1 common cause weeks counted from the typed windows.113263952weeks of the year⁦Alpha⁩, carries ⁦Same national holiday week⁩⁦Beta⁩, carries ⁦Same national holiday week⁩⁦Gamma⁩, carries ⁦Same national holiday week⁩3 branches1 branchesall of them closed · week 1all of them closed · week 1

Try a dependency

The dependency this page follows. Only one at a time, and the others stay named.

Which sources carry it

Edit dependencies, sources and closure weeks▾
Your dependencies

A dependency is whatever stands behind more than one of your sources. The page does not need to know what it is.

Dependency 1
Dependency 2
Dependency 3

Up to 3 named dependencies.

Your sources
Source 1

Dependencies this source carries

Source 2

Dependencies this source carries

Source 3

Dependencies this source carries

Closure weeks

Weeks of the year each source is closed, as you have them. A window is a first week and a last week, and one source can have several.

Window 1
▾
Window 2
▾
Window 3
▾
Window 4
▾
Window 5
▾
Sources named3
Sources behind the selected dependencyAlpha, Beta, Gamma
Branches in an ordinary week3
Branches in a shared week1
Weeks they are all closed at once out of 521 of 52
The whole count1

Your sources

Source
Alpha
Behind the dependency
yes
Closure weeks
1, 26 to 27
Weeks closed
3
Source
Beta
Behind the dependency
yes
Closure weeks
1 to 2
Weeks closed
2
Source
Gamma
Behind the dependency
yes
Closure weeks
1, 40 to 41
Weeks closed
3
SourceBehind the dependencyClosure weeksWeeks closed
Alphayes1, 26 to 273
Betayes1 to 22
Gammayes1, 40 to 413

The working

Weeks they are all closed at once1 of 52
Shared share handed to the calculation192 basis points, floored, so it is never larger than the weeks support
Event weighted branch count, diagnostic1851625\frac{1851}{625}6251851​, 2.9616
What the whole count is1, the lowest whole branch count in a class of events that has a share above zero

The third row is not an answer and it is not a source count. It is the average of two whole counts weighted by how many weeks each applies to, and it is here so the whole count above it cannot hide how it was made.

Weeks of the year they are all closed at once

weeks
weeks
weeks
weeks

It does not check the values in between.

How the answer sits across the values sampledA rail of the 9 values sampled, from 0 weeks to 8 weeks in steps of 1 week. Across the values sampled, the whole count of independent branches stays 1 branch from 1 week to 8 weeks, the highest value sampled. The nearest value where it changes is 0 weeks, where it becomes 3 branches.first change0 weeks1 weekon the page

Across the values sampled, the whole count of independent branches stays 1 branch from 1 week to 8 weeks, the highest value sampled. The nearest value where it changes is 0 weeks, where it becomes 3 branches.

Across the values sampled, the whole count of independent branches stays 1 branch from 1 week to 8 weeks, the highest value sampled. The nearest value where it changes is 0 weeks, where it becomes 3 branches.
The answer1 branch
Values sampled0 weeks to 8 weeks, 9 values, step 1 week
Holds from1 week
Holds to8 weeks, highest sampled
Nearest value that changes it0 weeks
The answer there3 branches

What an unchanged region does and does not prove is set out in a short lesson.

Every admissible integer in this range was checked. Values outside the range remain unchecked.

Here is the maths

▾

The formula in words

Every source you name is a branch on its own. When you say that several of them stand behind one dependency, an event attributed to that dependency reaches all of them at once, so those several count as one branch and the rest stay separate. If you named NNN sources and mmm of them carry the dependency, an ordinary event still meets NNN branches and a shared event meets N−m+1N-m+1N−m+1. The page reads the lower of the two whenever the shared class has any weeks in it at all.

Where the shared share comes from

C(s)C(s)C(s) is the union of the week numbers in the windows of source sss.
MMM is the set of sources carrying the selected dependency.
W=⋂s∈MC(s)W=\bigcap_{s\in M}C(s)W=s∈M⋂​C(s)
where WWW is the set of common cause weeks. WWW contains every week in 1 to 52 that appears in C(s)C(s)C(s) for every member in MMM.
w=∣W∣w=|W|w=∣W∣
where www is the count of common cause weeks.
B=⌊10000×w52⌋B=\left\lfloor\frac{10000\times w}{52}\right\rfloorB=⌊5210000×w​⌋
where BBB is the shared share in basis points.

A worked example

Alpha is closed in weeks 1, 26 and 27. Beta is closed in weeks 1 and 2. Gamma is closed in weeks 1, 40 and 41. All three carry the selected dependency, so their closed week sets meet at week 1 only.

One week converts to ⌊10000×152⌋\left\lfloor\frac{10000 \times 1}{52}\right\rfloor⌊5210000×1​⌋, which is 192 basis points. With NNN equal to 3 and mmm equal to 3, the branch count in that week is 3−3+1=13-3+1=13−3+1=1.

Selecting Same inbound port keeps week 1 but puts two sources behind the dependency, so the whole count becomes 2. Moving Beta's first window to weeks 10 and 11 removes the common week and returns the whole count to 3.

What the whole count is and what it is not

The answer is a whole number of branches because a branch is a whole thing. The event weighted figure in the third table is an average across two classes of week and it is diagnostic. A fractional average is not a fractional source, and neither number measures how often anything works.

What this does not model

It counts the weeks you typed and the membership you declared. It cannot discover a dependency you did not name, including one in a lower tier, a certifier, an owner, a material or a calendar.

It does not determine that any source is qualified or available, and it returns no percentage of anything. A low count is a named question for evidence and it is not a verdict on a source.

Check it yourself

Nine values are checked and the answer changes once, between zero weeks and one. The whole count is the answer and the rational is the working, and a fractional average is not a fractional source. The crossing is still in the first step across bounds of 0 and 52 at a step of 4, because it is the only one there is.

The calculation domain

Enter 2 to 5 sources and 1 to 3 dependencies. Source names allow 24 characters and dependency names 32. Closure windows determine the share, from 0 to 10,000 whole basis points.

Boundary

It counts typed closure weeks and declared membership without discovering unnamed dependencies, determining that a source is qualified or available, or measuring how often anything works.

Source anchors

NIST parallel redundancy model. The first source states that a parallel redundancy model assumes the branches are independent.

United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on common cause and dependent failures. The second source describes dependent failures defeating redundancy and identifies common cause groups.

Neither supplies a figure, a rate or a table to this page, and nothing on this page comes from anywhere but your own typing.

Ordered calculation trace

  1. Build the union of closed week numbers for each source.
  2. Keep the sources that carry the selected dependency.
  3. Intersect those sources' closed week sets and count the whole weeks in the intersection.
  4. Convert that week count with ⌊10000×w52⌋\left\lfloor\frac{10000 \times w}{52}\right\rfloor⌊5210000×w​⌋.
  5. Count every named source as an ordinary branch and the selected members as one branch in their shared weeks.
  6. Return the lowest whole branch count from the classes of week that occur.

Calculation version

1.0.0

The whole record prints. Your browser can save it as a PDF instead of printing it.

This page will never turn its count into a verdict on a source, a measure of continuity, a percentage of any kind, or a recommendation to add or remove anyone. It returns a whole number of branches from the weeks and the memberships you typed. A low number is a question you now have evidence to ask, and it is not an answer about anybody.

Related

  • Kraljic matrix: a low value part with one source is not routineTwo axes, seven gates, and every boundary declared by you. Type what the item does to profit and what one source does to supply, and it lands in one of four named situations with the gate that put it there shown beside it. Then move the count of sources you would genuinely order from tomorrow, and watch the name change at one whole number, or refuse to change at all.
  • Spend weighted average: one supplier closes the whole gap, until none canA spend weighted blend sits below the threshold you were handed. Raising one supplier's declared share on its own can close the entire gap, and the smallest move belongs to the supplier with the most spend behind it rather than to the one furthest from the figure. Above one threshold no single declaration reaches at all, and this page names both the supplier and that crossing.

Common cause week record

Common cause dependency: three qualified sources, and one week leaves one

Accepted inputs

Dependency 1
Same national holiday week
Dependency 2
Same inbound port
Dependency 3
Same base material
Source 1
Alpha, Dependencies carried: Same national holiday week, Same inbound port
Source 2
Beta, Dependencies carried: Same national holiday week, Same inbound port, Same base material
Source 3
Gamma, Dependencies carried: Same national holiday week, Same base material
Window 1
Alpha, 1 to 1, Annual shutdown
Window 2
Alpha, 26 to 27, Mid year maintenance
Window 3
Beta, 1 to 2, Annual shutdown
Window 4
Gamma, 1 to 1, Annual shutdown
Window 5
Gamma, 40 to 41, Line rebuild
Selected dependency
Same national holiday week

All results

Sources named
3
Sources behind the selected dependency
Alpha, Beta, Gamma
Branches in an ordinary week
3
Branches in a shared week
1
Weeks they are all closed at once out of 52
1
Weeks they are all closed at once
1
Shared share handed to the calculation
192 basis points, floored, so it is never larger than the weeks support
Event weighted branch count, diagnostic
1851625\frac{1851}{625}6251851​, 2.9616
The whole count
1
What collapsed the count
Same national holiday week
The working
The third row is not an answer and it is not a source count. It is the average of two whole counts weighted by how many weeks each applies to, and it is here so the whole count above it cannot hide how it was made.

Sweep of Weeks of the year they are all closed at once

The assumption
Weeks of the year they are all closed at once
Values sampled
0 to 8, 9, 1
The answer
1 branch
Holds across
1 to 8 weeks
Nearest change
0: 3 branches
Reading the boundary
The sweep samples only the values you entered. Between samples the answer is not checked, so read the boundary as observed, not proven.

Record fields

Calculation version
1.0.0
Boundary
It counts typed closure weeks and declared membership without discovering unnamed dependencies, determining that a source is qualified or available, or measuring how often anything works.
Ordered calculation trace
1. Build the union of closed week numbers for each source. 2. Keep the sources that carry the selected dependency. 3. Intersect those sources' closed week sets and count the whole weeks in the intersection. 4. Convert that week count with ⌊10000×w52⌋\left\lfloor\frac{10000 \times w}{52}\right\rfloor⌊5210000×w​⌋. 5. Count every named source as an ordinary branch and the selected members as one branch in their shared weeks. 6. Return the lowest whole branch count from the classes of week that occur.
Source anchors
NIST parallel redundancy model: https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section1/apr183.htm; United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on common cause and dependent failures: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1150/v2/sr1150v2appc.pdf

This page will never turn its count into a verdict on a source, a measure of continuity, a percentage of any kind, or a recommendation to add or remove anyone. It returns a whole number of branches from the weeks and the memberships you typed. A low number is a question you now have evidence to ask, and it is not an answer about anybody.

Badr Alghamdi · badralghamdi.com/tools/common-cause-week

Badr Alghamdi

Request a consultationLinkedInGitHubRSS