Factory shutdowns: the closures your schedule assumes are open

Chinese New Year, Eid and Golden Week close the factories your schedule assumes are open. This puts them back in the date.

Live result

No shutdown falls inside this span, so a 60 day lead time still lands on 11 December 2026.

order date12 October 2026

Your order

Calendar compiled 24 August 2026Confirmed windows come from published national holiday decrees. Islamic dates are calculated and are settled by moon sighting, so they can move by a day. China's 2027 decree is normally published in early November. Until then, the 2027 China windows here are estimates.

Order date

Dates outside 2026 and 2027 fall outside the calendar this page carries.

Quoted lead time60days

This is production time at the factory. Transit and customs sit on top of whatever comes out below.

Where it is made

Which future you are counting

Each option is a named future, not a confidence level. Nothing here is weighted and nothing is blended.

Adjust the assumptions

Slow-down before Chinese New Year7days

Output falls before the holiday as staff leave early.

Slow return after Chinese New Year7days

Some staff do not come back at all. Two to three weeks is common.

The dates

0 windows crossed

Decrees only

11 December 2026

Decrees and the usual pattern

11 December 2026

A longer estimate

11 December 2026

Decrees are a date somebody published. The wind down, the restart and the Ramadan hours are a pattern somebody observed, and a decree that has not been issued yet is neither. This page keeps them in separate columns because they are separate kinds of knowing.

Windows inside this order's span. Open a row for the operational context and source.

No shutdown windows fall inside this order's span.

Planning desk

optional views

Year map2026 · China

In 2026, this calendar shows 24 closed days and 17 reduced output days for China.

Full bars are ordinary . Thin bars show reduced output, and gaps show closures. Solid outlines mark confirmed windows. Hatched outlines mark estimates.

Calendar year

Inspect from a window start

Each preset uses the exact start date carried in this dataset. Selecting one updates the order timeline above.

Purchase order wavesame date · same region

These three orders run from 11 December 2026 to 26 February 2027 after the same factory calendar is applied to each quote.

Wave spacing

The quoted dates span 60 days. The factory calendar spreads them 17 days farther apart, to 77 days.

The least affected quote carries 0 days of calendar delay. The most affected carries 17 days because it crosses more of the year.

Set three lead times

Order 1

60 days

Uses the quoted lead time above.

Order 2days

Order 3days

Order 1

60 days

11 December 2026

Adding days alone gives 11 December 2026.

No days added

No estimated windows crossed

Order 2

90 days

10 January 2027

Adding days alone gives 10 January 2027.

No days added

No estimated windows crossed

Order 3

120 days

26 February 2027

Adding days alone gives 9 February 2027.

+17 days from shutdowns

3 estimates crossed

All three orders use 12 October 2026 and the same origin, ramp, and slowdown assumptions.

Here is the maths

Model version: 1.0

The formula, in words

The naive date is the order date plus the quoted lead time in calendar days. That is what most systems do and what most people mean.
The realistic date is found by walking forward one day at a time and asking what each day is worth. A day inside a full closure is worth nothing. A day inside a slowdown is worth its output factor. A 30% Ramadan reduction makes each day worth 0.7 of a production day. Every other day is worth one.
The walk stops on the first day the accumulated production days reach the quoted lead time. The difference between that date and the naive one is the answer.

D_n = D_0 + L

where

D_n

is the naive date,

D_0

the order date, and

L

the lead time in days.

f_d = \begin{cases}0 & d\in C\\p&d\in S\\1&d\notin C\cup S\end{cases}

where

f_d

is the production factor on day

d

C

the closure dates,

p

the slowdown output factor, and

S

the slowdown dates.

D_r = \min\{D:\sum_{d=D_0+1}^{D} f_d\ge L\}

where

D_r

is the realistic date and

D

a candidate completion date.

E = \sum_d\ell_d

where

E

is the estimated loss and

\ell_d

the production lost inside estimated windows.

S_n = D_{n,\max} - D_{n,\min}

where

S_n

is the quoted span,

D_{n,\max}

the latest naive date, and

D_{n,\min}

the earliest naive date.

S_r = D_{r,\max} - D_{r,\min}

where

S_r

is the calendar span,

D_{r,\max}

the latest realistic date, and

D_{r,\min}

the earliest realistic date.

\Delta S = S_r-S_n

where

\Delta S

is the spacing change.

A worked example

A 60 day lead time quoted on 20 December 2026 for a Chinese supplier gives 18 February 2027 when the days are added. Walking the calendar, the order runs into a 7 day slowdown before the lunar new year. That loses 3.5 days of production, the closure loses 9 days, and the 7 day return at 40% output loses 4.2 days. The realistic date is 7 March 2027, which is 17 days later.

Those 3 Chinese New Year windows are all estimated in 2027. They remove 3.5 days, 9 days, and 4.2 days of production, or 16.7 days in total. The closure is the largest estimated movement. This split measures modelled lost production, not the probability of the estimate being right.

For 3 orders quoted at 60, 90, 120 days from the same 20 December 2026 date, the dates found by adding days run from 18 February 2027 to 19 April 2027, a span of 60 days. The factory dates run from 7 March 2027 to 11 May 2027, a span of 65 days. The calendar therefore adds 5 days to the spacing because the longest order also crosses Labour Day.

How the planning readings work

The estimate boundary adds the lost production inside crossed estimated windows. It keeps published and unpublished dates separate, but it does not create a confidence interval. The wave reading compares the earliest and latest dates across the three orders before and after the same calendar is applied. A positive spacing change means later orders cross more disruption than earlier ones.

What this does not model

Weekends and standard rest days, provincial and regional holidays, your supplier's own works holiday, capacity that was already sold to someone else before the shutdown, raw-material lead times sitting behind your order, transit, customs, and the freight capacity crunch that surrounds every major closure. It also does not know your supplier. Two factories in the same city close for different lengths of time, and the only reliable source for which is the factory.

Where the dates come from

Windows marked confirmed are taken from published national holiday decrees. Windows marked estimated are one of three things: a decree that has not been issued yet, an Islamic date that is calculated but settled by moon sighting, or a convention such as the European August shutdown that no authority publishes at all. The page never promotes an estimate to a confirmation, and the hatched fill is the signal, not the colour.

Counting only decrees is the narrow reading and counting the usual pattern is the wide one; both are printed, and choosing between them is a judgement about your supplier rather than about this calendar.

The whole record prints. Your browser can save it as a PDF instead of printing it.

Public holiday dates are compiled from published decrees where they exist and estimated where they do not. Islamic holidays are settled by moon sighting and can move by a day in either direction; Ramadan slowdowns and the European August shutdown are conventions rather than published closures, and China's 2027 decree has not been issued at the time this was compiled. This page describes a pattern. It does not know your supplier's plan, and it is not a substitute for asking them. Confirm every shutdown with the factory before you commit to a date.

Factory shutdowns: the closures your schedule assumes are open

Order

Order date: 12 October 2026
Quoted lead time: 60 days
Region: China

Closures crossed · Calendar compiled 24 August 2026

Windows crossed: None

Delivery dates

Without shutdown windows: 11 December 2026
With selected windows: 11 December 2026
Future counted: Decrees and the usual pattern

Your order

The dates

Planning desk

Order 1

Order 2

Order 3

Here is the maths

The formula, in words

A worked example

How the planning readings work

What this does not model

Where the dates come from

Related

Order

Closures crossed · Calendar compiled 24 August 2026

Delivery dates